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The Detroit Lions are still looking for their first win of the season in Week 13. They have a 77.9% chance to pick at No. 1 in the 2022 NFL draft, according to the updated first-round projections from the ESPN Football Power Index. The struggling Houston Texans and Jacksonville Jaguars have better than a 95% chance to pick in the top five.

There already have been five trades involving first-round picks in the 2022 draft, with the New York Giants projected to have two top-10 picks. The Philadelphia Eagles are currently projected to have three top-15 picks, thanks to deals with the Miami Dolphins and the Indianapolis Colts — the latter of which involves a conditional pick based on quarterback Carson Wentz’s playing time. After spraining both ankles in Week 2, Wentz has played every snap since.

Every week during the season, the FPI projects the draft order by simulating the remainder of the season 10,000 times. Game probabilities are based largely on the model’s ratings for individual teams in addition to game locations. The order is based on the records the model believes the teams will have after 17 games, and the order is based on each team’s average draft position in the simulations.

Check out the full 1-32 projection for the 2022 NFL draft (updated Nov. 30):

Average draft position: 1.3
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 77.9%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 99.8%


Average draft position: 2.6
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 13.0%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 97.4%


Average draft position: 3.1
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 7.5%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 95.2%


Average draft position: 4.1
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 1.4%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 85.5%


Average draft position: 7.4
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick:
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 33.4%


Average draft position: 7.9
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 0.1%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 35.5%


Average draft position: 8.7
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick:
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 18.2%


Average draft position: 8.9
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick:
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 19.7%


Average draft position: 9.2
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick:
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 9.9%


Average draft position: 11.2
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick:
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 5.1%


Average draft position: 12.9
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 4.3%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 38.3%


Average draft position: 13.2
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 2.5%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 35.6%


Average draft position: 13.3
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 1.8%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 28.6%


Average draft position: 16.1
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 0.6%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 14.9%


Average draft position: 16.4
FPI chance to earn top-five pick:
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 8.9%


Average draft position: 16.5
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 0.8%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 15.4%


Average draft position: 16.8
FPI chance to earn top-five pick:
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 6.6%


Average draft position: 17.1
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 0.2%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 8.3%


Average draft position: 17.8
FPI chance to earn top-five pick:
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 6.6%

* Conditional pick: Will become Eagles’ pick if Colts quarterback Carson Wentz plays 75% of the team’s offensive snaps this season. He has played 98.6% of snaps through Week 12.


Average draft position: 20.6
FPI chance to earn top-five pick:
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 1.6%


Average draft position: 20.7
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 2.9%


Average draft position: 20.9
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 1.7%


Average draft position: 23.7
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 0.1%


Average draft position: 24.5
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 0.1%


Average draft position: 25.0
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 0.2%


Average draft position: 25.4
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick:


Average draft position: 25.5
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick:


Average draft position: 25.6
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick:


Average draft position: 26.9
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 0.1%


Average draft position: 27.7
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick:


Average draft position: 28.3
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick:


Average draft position: 28.7
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick:


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